Notes · the research library
One stream — research, results, macro and live calls, newest first. Free notes open in full; subscriber notes show a preview and the lock. No sorting to do, nothing buried.
Through 2025 the RBI cut hard and EMIs eased. Then in 2026 it stopped — three holds in a row at 5.25% — with two things holding the cut hostage: a weak monsoon at home and a war abroad lifting oil. The monsoon and the interest rate have become the same story.
Read the note →
El Niño dries out the world's pantry — Southeast Asian palm, Brazilian soy and sugar, Australian wheat — at the same time. India is the planet's biggest edible-oil buyer, importing over half it uses. When those fields dry and the rupee slides, the bill lands on your doormat.
Read the note →
A weak monsoon doesn't hit 'the market' — it empties the farmer's wallet first, then travels quarters later to real companies. Tractors, rural two-wheelers and village staples feel it first; urban, private banks and exporters barely notice. The revenue mix is everything.
Read the note →
Every few years the Pacific off South America warms a degree or two — and Indian consumer stocks wobble, tractor forecasts get cut, and rate calls get rewritten. Here's the thing itself, in plain language, and why 2026 is shaping up to be an El Niño year.
Read the note →
Is this shaping into a 2015-style problem, or a lot of noise? Too early to call — but the four dials that decide how an El Niño year lands say a below-normal season is the base case, and the shock absorbers are only partly charged.
Read the note →
Exports fell 38% in Q4 and took the headline profit with them — but EBITDA per wheel kept rising, the first OEM steel-wheel price hike in twenty years landed, and alloy + knuckles are scaling on capacity already built.
Read the preview →
Revenue fell 20% by design — the pivot from wagons to metro cars and Vande Bharat is underway, with an order book at 8.6× revenue that is 65% passenger. The gap between booked work and recognised revenue is the entire investment case.
Read the preview →
950 new beds, three hospitals opened, the Agra acquisition closed — and a margin trough that is denominator, not disease. The recovery from here is mechanical: new hospitals fill toward mature occupancy while the established base compounds ARPOB.
Read the preview →
A+ rated, borrowing costs down from 12.5% to 7.9%, net debt headed from 3.1× to 1.7× EBITDA — and W Hyderabad opens Q4 FY27 on a zero-capex lease. At 8.3× FY28E EBITDA the stock prices in none of it.
Read the preview →
Record ₹5,240 Cr revenue, EBITDA/tonne up 46% sequentially, SS flat rolling approved — the market prices a cyclical steel company while a multi-product materials platform commissions through FY29, on a net-cash balance sheet.
Read the preview →
Highest profit in four decades, HealthCo at cash breakeven, and a confirmed Q4 FY27 demerger that hands shareholders 195.2 AHTL shares per 100 held — at no cost. The market prices one business; the target reflects three.
Read the preview →
The stock de-rated 54% waiting for PM-KUSUM 2 — while the business posted record ₹2,064 Cr revenue, 22% ROE and its first positive-OCF quarter in three years. At 2.4× book, the scheme is priced as if it never arrives. We think that's the mispricing.
Read the preview →
The premium accrues to whoever controls the step the policy is protecting. From June 2026 that step is the cell. Waaree (the volume play), Premier (the compliance play), Reliance (the upstream bet) — three fundamentally different bets on the same structural thesis.
Read the preview →
Sixteen years of deliberate protection: from JNNSM to PLI Tranche-III. BCD at 40%, ALMM List-II binding from June 2026, ₹24,000 Cr of PLI committed. Three instruments, one moat — and the investor who sees which step is protected next.
Read the preview →
India's solar sector is transitioning between three cell architectures, and that shift is itself the investment opportunity. Whoever is still running PERC at scale in FY27 is not just efficiency-disadvantaged — they are tender-disadvantaged.
Read the preview →
Forty-eight hours after we called cell the choke point, Waaree's Unbound 2.0 showed it was already moving. Three of the five largest Indian solar names are no longer module companies — they are integrated energy stacks. The market hasn't finished pricing that.
Read the preview →
Every pillar of our May-2025 thesis delivered, and the stock paid 47% for being right. At ₹9,003 the price has caught up with the value: we downgrade to HOLD — not a top call, a discipline call. Existing holders sit tight; new money waits for a setback.
Read the preview →
India installed 45 GW of solar in FY26 — more than the prior decade combined — and must add ~58 GW a year to 2030. We map the value chain, the policy wall, and the 14 manufacturers building the response.
Read the note →
Q2 confirms cost discipline holding even as realisations soften. Captive power and ore keep the margin floor in place; the re-rating waits on ferro-alloy spreads.
Read the note →
The cleanest read in the staples-of-capex theme. Q2 confirms pricing power and operating leverage — the structural W&C capex thesis is intact.
Read the note →
Initiating on Shyam Metalics with a Buy. Vertical integration, balance-sheet headroom and downstream value-add support a structural re-rating.
Read the preview →
Freight-wagon legacy plus a metro and Vande Bharat order book make Titagarh a multi-cycle compounder with visibility through FY28.
Read the note →
Why the Q3 setup is more constructive than consensus reads — liquidity tailwinds, seasonality, and a softening rate path.
Read the note →
Alloy-wheel mix shift, EV pipeline and exports — Q1 supports the thesis with visible margin expansion.
Read the note →
Tier-2/3 hospital expansion plays out over years, not quarters. Q1 shows operating discipline despite greenfield ramp costs.
Read the preview →
Premiumisation, distribution depth and operating leverage in premium IMFL drive the thesis. Q1 confirms the category mix shift.
Read the note →
Q1 supports the structural cables-capex thesis. Distribution depth, the B2C extension and operating leverage remain the three legs of the bull case.
Read the note →
Positioned for a structural re-rating as alloy-wheel mix, EV-platform supply and export ramp converge. Buy with 44% upside.
Read the preview →
The tier-2/3 expansion strategy is intact. Near-term margin headwinds from new units are timing risk, not thesis risk.
Read the note →
Among the largest IMFL players with deep distribution and a credible premiumisation push. Initiating Buy with a multi-year horizon.
Read the preview →
What a compressing IN–US 10Y spread means for FII positioning, the rupee, and Indian duration trades.
Read the note →
Initiating coverage on Polycab as the cleanest beneficiary of the wires & cables capex super-cycle. Buy, multi-year horizon.
Read the preview →
