The setup
Why the Q3 setup is more constructive than the consensus reads: liquidity tailwinds, festive seasonality, and a softening rate path are lining up at the same time.
The three drivers
- System liquidity has quietly turned surplus
- Festive demand hits an inventory channel that is lean, not stuffed
- The rate path has stopped being a headwind even before it becomes a tailwind
What we're doing
Leaning into the consumer and capex names already on the desk rather than adding beta for its own sake.
