RBI Monetary Policy Review – WPI Preview9 October 2026WPI PREVIEW · SEP 2026 · WEDNESDAY 14 OCTOBER, EXPECTED ABOUT 12:00 PM IST · PLUS OUTPUT AND TRIAL INPUT PPIWe Expect WPI at 11.2%, With Factory Goods the Real TestSeptember's energy, steel and power shock should lift wholesale inflation to 11.2 per cent. The question is whether it stays with fuel andmetals or spreads into factory goods.11.2% 28.4% 14.5% 9.3%9.8%Headline WPI, Front WaveFuel & PowerBasic MetalsManufactured ProductsSeasonal-only modelest.14.1% of the WPI basketRetained YoY targetOur line: 9.5%No commodity shockScenario cases 10.4 to 11.9%Figure 1: Commodity pass-through adds 1.3 pp to a seasonal-only 9.8%T H E O N E T H I N G TO U N D E R STA N D B E F O R E T H ERELEASE% YoY (axis starts at 9%)Manufactured Products are about 63 per cent of WPI, so they matter12%more than a spectacular fuel number. Above 9.5 per cent would say+1.3 pp11.2%businesses are building higher costs into their prices. Below it, the11%shock is still concentrated upstream.Figure 2: Our 9.3% sits just under the line9.8%10%Above 9.5%: shockstarts to embed9.3% estimateestimate9.3%9%Seasonal-onlyCommodityOurmodelpass-throughestimate8%8.5%9%9.5%10%10.5%Source: Front Wave Research rerun, 7 October. The 1.3 pp rests on our pass-throughSource: Front Wave Research estimates. 9.5% is our analytical threshold, not an officialassumptions.benchmark.How to read the print F R O N T W A V E T H R E S H O L D SDownsideIn line with usHawkishStructurally worryingHeadline WPIBelow 10%10.5 to 11.8%Above 12%Above 12%, Manufactured Products above 9.5 to10%, broad breadthWhat it would mean Fuel price controls hold back more of Upstream shock, partly Fuller pass-through of oil, The shock is embedding in industrial pricingthe energy shockabsorbedpower, steelOur scenario cases: 10.4% low, 11.2% central, 11.9% high, varying commodity and manufacturing assumptions. A seasonal-only model gives 9.8%.New on Wednesday: Input PPI against Output PPI. F U T U R E T E ST: R E S U LT N OT K N O W N Y E TInput PPI is what producers pay; Output PPI is what they receive. If input prices stay ahead, producers are still absorbing costs and EBITDA margins fall before CPIrises: a margin squeeze. If output prices catch up, pass-through is increasing.What we are watching, in orderWhat would make our call wrong▼ Lower: weaker commodity pass-through than we assume (seasonal-only model:1. Mineral oils We assume +4.5% on the month; the RBI puts September Brent9.8 per cent); fuel price controls hold back more of the oil shock.near $114. Our biggest uncertainty.▲ Higher: full mineral-oil pass-through; a stronger electricity index; steel fully2. MetalsIs the steel move reaching fabricated metals, the firstcaptured; chemicals and rubber stay firm.downstream product?Why it matters3. CementThe counter-signal: contained cement means no broadconstruction-material boom.High WPI does not automatically mean weak earnings. Pricing power and low energyintensity protect margins; importers and leveraged balance sheets are moreexposed.FRONT WAVE TAKEAWAYThe 11.2 per cent headline is the easy part. Wednesday's signal is Manufactured Products against 9.5 per cent, read with the firstInput and Output PPI: together they show whether producers are still absorbing the shock or passing it on.Connect with the AnalystCONNECT WITH USWebsite: frontwaveresearch.comMessage the Front Wave Research desk on WhatsAppDisclosure Statement: This research report is issued by Front Wave Research LLP, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst entity (Registration No: INH000018407). The disclosures mentioned below are in compliance with SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, to ensure transparency and integrity. Investors must perform their own due diligence beforeacting on any recommendations. 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