RBI Monetary Policy Review – CPI Preview9 October 2026CPI PREVIEW · SEP 2026 · MONDAY 12 OCTOBER, EXPECTED ABOUT 4:00 PM IST · MOSPIWe Expect CPI at 5.7%, With Food Doing Most of the WorkConsumer inflation should rise from August's 4.82 per cent to 5.7 per cent, mainly through food. The question is whether energy costs arereaching households via freight and services.5.7%8.1%3.0 to 3.2% 0.9%5.4%Headline CPI, Front WaveCPI food (CFPI)Core ex-jewelleryCPI, month on monthRBI-implied Septemberest.CPIDetailed food modelUnderlying inflationFood adds 63 of 88 bpScenario cases 5.4 to 6.0%From its 4.9% Q2 projectionT H E O N E T H I N G TO U N D E R STA N D B E F O R E T H E R E L E A S EWPI near 11.2 per cent against CPI at 5.7 per cent means OMCs, government pricing and company margins are absorbing part of the cost shock. Theheadline will mostly tell us about food. Transport, restaurants and core ex-jewellery will tell us whether that absorption is starting to fail.Figure 1: Food delivers 63 bp of an 88 bp monthly riseFigure 2: Our 5.7% sits above the 5.4% the RBI's Q2 path impliesSep MoMbp of headline MoM CPI, cumulativeFood & beverages+63+1.68%4.82%August actual (MoSPI)4.82%Personal care / misc.+6+1.0%Housing, water, electricity, gas+6+0.35%Transport+4+0.45%Restaurants / accommodation+2.5 +0.70%5.4%RBI Q2 path implies5.4%Clothing & footwear+2 +0.30%Furnishings / household+2 +0.35%Health+1.5 +0.25%5.7%Our call, scenario cases5.7%Paan / tobacco / intoxicants+1 +0.25%Headline CPI88 bp 0.88%0 15 30 45 60 75 904.5%5%5.5%6%6.5%Source: Front Wave Research rerun; RBI October MPR; MoSPI. Our bar spans relief (5.4%) toSource: Front Wave Research rerun, 7 October. Non-food divisions are retained assumptions;those below 1 bp not shown.stress (6.0%) cases.How to read the print F R O N T W A V E T H R E S H O L D SBenignIn line with usHawkishHeadline5% or lower5.0 to 5.7% (our call: 5.7%)Above 6% (above 6.5% with breadth: very hawkish)Food (CFPI)Below 7%Our call: 8.1%, at the hawkish lineAbove 8%Core ex-jewelleryAround 3%3.0 to 3.2%Materially above 3.5 to 4%Transport, restaurants Not accelerating Restaurants +0.70%, transport +0.45% MoMAccelerating; restaurants holding high single digitsASSUMPTIONWhat we are watching, in orderWhat would make our call wrong▲ Higher: stronger food; restaurants and services stay hot; freight spills into1. Headline and food Is food carrying the month? Onion was up 35% on Augusttransport; utility tariffs reprice.in RBI price curves.▼ Lower: stronger food intervention; vegetables reverse; no pump-price increase;2. Goods transport August already showed elevated freight inflation.the RBI's Q2 path implies about 5.4 per cent.3. RestaurantsFood, LPG, power, transport, labour and rent in one price:Why it mattersour best second-round gauge.4. Core ex-jewellery Strips out August's jewellery distortion.The RBI targets consumer inflation and watches breadth, core and services morethan the headline. A broad print above 6 per cent could lift rate-hike expectationsand bond yields.FRONT WAVE TAKEAWAYJudge Monday's print by its mix. Restaurants, transport and core ex-jewellery rising together would mean the upstream shock isreaching households.Connect with the AnalystCONNECT WITH USWebsite: frontwaveresearch.comMessage the Front Wave Research desk on WhatsAppDisclosure Statement: This research report is issued by Front Wave Research LLP, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst entity (Registration No: INH000018407). 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